Will Virginia Decide The Election?
Regardless of all the national polls, least we forget, it is the electoral votes that decide the presidency. An interesting insight into this dynamic is provided by intrade.com, which uses the consensus of the market where real dollars are being bet on the presidential election and other political races. I’ve plotted the “market value” of the electoral votes and here is the graph.
And it’s a very close race by any measure. And Virginia is both now in play as a swing state and perhaps is a presidential decider. Northern Virginia is swinging blue and has for years. And to some extent, so is the Richmond metropolitan area. Surprisingly, the stalwart conservatives in the Norfolk area are even giving Obama a second look. Certainly rural and western Virginia will vote along conservative lines.
But, again least we forget, it was Jim Webb, whose recent close and surprising win over George Allen, tipped the Senate to the Democrats and changed the balance of power in Washington. And now Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes, stands to be king maker and both parties know this. And we Virginians can expect a lot of campaign attention, national news focus, and plenty of close up opportunity to see all the candidates in the next two months. I challenge all Virginia voters to accept this civic responsibility of making an informed choice and to exercise that choice at the polls – the future of our country can be at stake.