Acknowledging the Delegate Marshall Effect

I’m sitting here in the early morning hours waiting to see if three of the possible four states undecided will swing the Senate. I’m disappointed but surprised at the outcome of the Virginia Marriage amendment. And I’m wondering – wondering what could have erased the knife-edge difference between Allen and Webb.

And it comes to me that there had to be a large number of religiously conservative voters who were motivated to the polls by the marriage amendment. Without those votes I would imagine that Webb would have won easily.

And the tireless crusading of one Virginia Delegate – Robert Marshall, largely propelled that marriage amendment.

Now should this eventually comedown to Webb losing and because of that loss the Senate remains under Republican control, then a lot of credit will go to Delegate Robert Marshall.

Who would have imagined that Mr. Marshall would have been in the position of king maker – of having tipped an election that tipped the Congress that tipped the balance of power in America?

Yeah, I know, a bit far fetched.

But had the Democratic Party been a stronger opponent of the amendment, if it had courageously taken a principled position fueled with money and resources, one wonders that although the marriage amendment might have still lost, Webb most probably would have clearly won handily.

Comments

Mark said…
And it comes to me that there had to be a large number of religiously conservative voters who were motivated to the polls by the marriage amendment. Without those votes I would imagine that Webb would have won easily.

WOW! we agree. Excellent.

Allen ran a personal attack campaign against Webb, a defensive campaign after his mucaca? remark. Webb did not. The fact that 58% voted for what Allen supported (Marriage Amend) and Allen loosing the election, tells me Allen's campaign was lacking.
Scott Nolan said…
It is very, very sad that so many voters and citizens around me in Virginia feel they have to compound bigoted laws with writing bigotry into the constitution of the state.

I feel physically ill today. Basically Virginia was with the exception of one tiny marginal victory (the Webb victory), a near total loss. We still have way to many Republican congress-critters, we have the horrible bigotry in our constitution. My county has an ignorant moron for new Chairman, and a nearby delegate disgrict has a racist and bigoted delegate elect.

Frankly, at this point - only the voters and the non-voting citizens are to blame. None of these "races" should have been close. We have relapsed into a cesspool for humanity. It'll take me days to pull out of my black mood.
bruce roemmelt said…
Bill,

America owes a giant debt to all those who will continue to suffer and will suffer anew the impact of Amendment #1, but your post is not so far fatched.

The logic seems clear to me.

All the R juice to continue to pound on same sex couples was not spent on Allen.

Allen loses.

The R's lose the US Senate by one seat.

That seat will be held by Webb.

America will change.

Democracy will emerge again.

The founding fathers might even be smiling.

We will again have a system of checks and balances in America.

Gays will continue to be descriminated against, but essentially at the same level.

Thank you tribe. This is truly the definition of "taking one for the team".

b
Bill Garnett said…
Truth will have to win out in the end.

Bible verses cannot be allowed, in our democracy, to trump facts, rational debate, and common sense.

And eventually some charismatic leadership from the gay ranks has to appear to lead this fight to full and equal rights.

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